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Look for key numbers such as five and seven because they tend to represent two- and three-possession games. In both cases, the spread is almost always If New York pulls off an outright upset, then that is also a winning wager. Need more winning picks? The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country.
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Doc's Picks Service Need more winning picks? All rights reserved. What's the fun in that? Even your bragging rights would be next to nil. But what if the basement-dweller team was spotted 24 points? That's the concept behind the point spread. When two teams meet on the football field or a basketball court, one team is typically better than the other. If all bettors had to do was to pick the winning team, everybody would simply wager on the best team and collect their money.
Gambling institutions, sportsbooks, and bookies would soon go broke. Few people doubted that Carolina was the better of the two teams, so the majority of bettors would have taken the Panthers if they had only been required to pick the winning team. So the sportsbooks and bookies created a point spread to make both teams equally attractive in the eyes of bettors. Carolina was installed as a 6-point favorite, which is commonly written as Carolina If you bet the favorite, the Panthers would have to win by 7 points or more for you to win your wager.
And remember, the Panthers are favored by 6 points, so we have to subtract 6 points from their final score for betting purposes. If Carolina were to win , Panthers' bettors would win their wager. If the Panthers were to win , Carolina bettors would lose because they did not win by more than those 6 points. If you bet the underdog, you'd win your bet if the Broncos won the game outright or if they lost by 5 points or less.
Because the Broncos are the underdogs, we would add 6 points to their final score for betting purposes.
This is actually good and we can take advantage of it because if more punters are buying the spread rather than selling it the spread betting provider would raise the spread; and this could be raised to an artificial level due to the thrill-seeking punters as opposed to real sporting probabilities It is similar to what goes on with favourites; when people go in bookies and bet on the favourite they lose long term. This is because the bookies odds for the favourite are lower than the expected probability of that event occuring remember odds are probabilities.
Exchanges offer close to a perfect reflection of a true price in the same way as a share price all things being equal and information being available to the public should represent a perfect market. Fortunately greed, inside information and weight of money through psychological betting means I can still make a living as it is not a perfect market. A: There is more likely to be value on the sell side of an open ended possible result i.
But there isn't necessarily going to be value. And this is not just because the firm expects more punters to buy, but also you have to factor in the possibility that "the worst that can happen is the worst that can happen" So if you sold Lara's runs at whatever price the day he hit , then you have suffered from that 'worst that can happen' scenario, or goals in last season's portsmouth game at home where it finished , or tennis games that go to the 5th set and finish A: If I had to make a guess SportingIndex quotes get moved by weight of money to balance their positions.
Spreadex probably match their initial quotes to what the other two put up. They also likely have the fewest punters and even then they're not particularly big spenders. ExtraBet have what appears to be the most 'cutting edge' trading screens of the big three. The constant adjustments made to their quotes could be that they're more tightly tied in to movements in the Betfair markets. Betfair and similar exchanges are now a solid foundation from which the main betting markets take their lead, and spread firms can build their quotes.
That means you can buy him at Had Montoya won, the bet would score points, so you would make a profit of - In the event Montoya was fifth, 1. A: Ok, the outright index is the principle 'to win tournament' market and works by assigning points to players depending on how far they progress. For instance players get 60 pts for winning the tournament, 40 for the runner-up, 20 for losing in the semi-finals, 10 for losing in the quarter-finals and 6 for losing in the last Andy can get a maximum of 60 points for winning so the most points you can make is 26 points.
A: Yes, of course spread betting in horse racing is possible and indeed has increased in popularity in recent years. In fact one of Sporting Index's racing specialists commented that he has been around since the company was just starting up 'When I arrived 12 years ago I was one of six employees, doing all the racing by myself. Now there are of us, with a racing staff of Distances are one of the most popular area here and are offered on both individual races and across entire cards of seven or eight events across a day at a meeting.
A further spread speciality is the 'match', which is a bet based on the distance between two finishers in a horses' race. These markets have a cap to serve as a protection for both punters and providers alike in that it caps losses , with a limit of 15 lengths in National Hunt races and 12 on the flat.
As the capping measure might indicate these markets are very volatile - especially the National Hunt where Fences can make a lot of difference. Match bets are also another way to bet. The challenge here is to decide which of two horses - both of which are close to the top end of the betting and are reasonably closely matched - will run better. Here it doesn't matter whether your horse wins the race; what matters is that it does better than the other one in the match.
You can bet on the favourite's index where each favourite gets a certain amount of points. This allocation of points creates a spread and horse spread betting punters will buy if they think the horse will win or sell if they think that it won't. You can also bet on the jockeys index which is very similar to the favourite's index except that here you are betting against a quote of how great a race a jockey will have.
Warning: Being quite a technical form of betting spread betting on horses is definitely is not suitable for beginners as you are never entirely sure how much you stand to lose; hence it is risky especially in the wrong hands. Some of these markets are difficult for punters and dealers alike which adds to the excitement of the game; and one sports trader highlights one example 'A six-horse race with three novices and two more that haven't run over fences before.
How do you predict that? A: Here are a few thoughts in no particular order. You are going to be spending a lot of time on it so if you enjoy it it helps. If you have some basic knowledge that helps but be prepared to search out more. Choose something that is available with all three spread firms. That way there is a market so you should get better prices. Choose something that is NOT hyped by the spread firms that way the market may be more in your favour.
Choose something that is an aggregate like total lengths or total goals avoid bets that require you to work out two values that are then multiplied together like multi mules or total goal minutes. There are reasons for this. Choose a market that gives you plenty of opportunities to bet.
Avoid bets where the spread firms simply use Betfair and a set of tables to work out the spreads. This includes all Index bets and especially binary spreads. Avoid any bets where the outcomes have arbitrary points alloted to them and you buy or sell the result or aggregate. This is things like Jockeys, Top weights and performance indexes. Choose low quality sport as well as high quality.
As with a lot of betting and trading, it is a matter of heart versus head. The advice given to punters in any field is to bet on your fears as opposed to your hopes. The propensity of the football punter to do the exact opposite may explain the feelings of spread traders.
As Chris Shillington, a spokesman for a sports spread betting company says "When you get into the office, you tend to start thinking in terms of what will be best for business. Our traders are football fans, and many of them are English, but it will still be pretty gloomy in here if England do win the World Cup, because it will mean we end up paying out on a large scale.
A: This was answered by member Spreadz from the uk-spreadbetting. Most of the time when a punter's thoughts drift towards this subject it is because they're looking to improve their returns. Can't fault that for an ambition! Because of the hype surrounding many money management 'plans' the unwary can start to believe that improved returns can be gained merely by manipulating stakes. Whereas in reality, the only way to really get more bang for your buck is to improve your selection methods.
The majority of staking plans, Kelly et al, require the player to know the precise chances of success. Unless you're tossing a coin, cutting cards or playing roulette, etc. Even if I know my results over a lengthy period, there is no guarantee that future results will mirror what happened in the past.
IMO, staking plans are excellent at jacking up returns when applied to past results. As for increasing profits on future results Spread betting is unlike traditional odds betting inasmuch all too often your risk is unknown beforehand. How much of an impact would this maximum single trade loss make on my betting bank? Playing the spreads is much like fixed-odds even money betting, going higher or lower "should" give you an even chance. If your returns show more losers than winners, even though you might be showing a profit, I would re-examine your strategy.
Making money from spreads when you have fewer winners than losers suggest you're relying on big hits, which IMO is dangerous ground. The higher your percentage of losers, the more likely that successive maximum losses will be encountered. Make sure you are prepared for the worst cumulative cases eating into your reserves.
Like hard disk crashes, it is not a case of "if" it will happen, but "when". Overall juggle your potential winners to losers strike rate with the worst loss that can be inflicted from each of your trades to estimate the bank size you'll need to cope. I don't know of a formula to help, and only you can know what your figures are. FWIW, my advice would be, do all you can to increase your winner to loser percentage so as to minimise consecutive losers.
Be ultra cautious with your estimations of worst-cases, and make it a bit worse than you first thought for luck. Accept losing days, weeks or even months with good grace they're all part of the picture. Look for steady growth over the long term. Forget any get-rich-quick ideas, they're for story books and all too often the "buy my tips" websites. Comfort yourself with the knowledge that almost all hobbies cost money, some a great deal more than others.
This is one hobby with the potential to pay you to do it, and the better you get, the more you can make. But as with most hobbies it might cost you a bit to do it too, especially so in the early stages. Nothing teachers you better than experience, especially when it hits you in the wallet! A: This was answered by member selphie from the uk-spreadbetting. Having just dropped back a few points today. I'm fairly in the mood for this.
Long losing runs are easier to deal with if you have a steady flow of bets. It is psychologically more difficult to have a large loss then no opportunities at all or only ones with relatively small upsides for the next week or so. This is when you go down the slippery slope of trying to "squeeze in" bets that normally you wouldn't take. A good idea is to write your method down on a piece of paper and look at it every so often to make sure you're still doing it.
You need to have faith in what you are doing. In my case that is pretty straightforward because my method is mechanistic both in terms of selection and staking. This stops me from wandering off track and also gives me a degree of faith in what I'm doing because I know the same thing has worked over a long period beforehand.
However if you are using your judgement then it is much more difficult. Ironically the closer you get to being right without actually being right the more distressing it is. This is because in the latter case I can feel that clearly the horse was much better than everyone thought whereas in the former I was soooo close! You need to have an idea of how variable your results are likely to be. What is your worst case scenario? I already have mine, it is a 75 point loss in one trade.
That is my worst possible result. So today's effort was as nothing. My bank has enough to cover 10 of these losses. In practical terms I have a 75 point loss happening about 1 in bets. The problem is that once you get above a certain level badness you can't really work out the probabilities. So I have my "worst possible" at 75 then allow for 10 of them. This is the first one in a year and a half I have hit.
Which is about 1 in bets so I'm a tad early I guess. I would suggest you have at least 30 and preferably 50 bets before you start reassessing things. Try and make a list of things that could cause your method to fail. In my case for example it might be a new course opening or a new distance of race or race conditions. For golf it might be rule changes new courses etc. If you have these listed in the first place at least you'll be aware before they arrive and they will give you a list of ready-made suspects if things go wrong.
One of the worst errors I make and I'm sure everyone else does is take a single bad outcome and extrapolate it over everything. For example today I had a bad result. I bet more bad horses run on a Monday. I'll bet less on Monday's ". Totally incorrect as it happens but it sounds logical. I'm at a disadvantage as I am a one trick pony but if you have several strings to your bow then often one will do badly and others well.
This does help. Look very very carefully at your staking. I do far better with my geared staking than pure levels. Perhaps bet more on bets with limited downsides and less on the almost bottomless ones? Try and evaluate your advantage on every bet. What would you set the quotes at? Record this with your bets and see how it correlates with the results. Finally watch out for the correlated bets. These are bets that are connected.
However if you have multiple bets. A: Well, to gain an insight on this one has to watch some of SportingIndex's spread compilers in action which is exactly what two reporters from Inside Edge did. The company's dealers have immediate access to their order book on each market and can see the book's overall exposure as well as information as to how each punter is performing.
The dealers are experts in the art of odds compiling for certain sports so this section focuses on just a few of the more popular markets - the favourites index, match bets and distances. The dealers typically start the day by going through the Racing Post and getting a first feel for the likelihood of the 3 or 4 horses forecast to be at the head of the market for the different races. Since each winning choice is valued at 25 pts on the index, the dealer will make provision for this by estimating how many pts the favorites are likely worth.
Dealers will then usually cross-check against the Betfair prices this is a free substitute of the tissue prices of old which bookies used to pay for to get an idea of where the money is going. At this stage a dealer will compile his spread prices for the favourites index before putting it on the line. Once the bets start coming in, the line will be adjusted accordingly.
What about the other markets? A dealer's work on the distances is less of a chore. It still involves an odds compiler working out the spread based on the racing form, but he will also compare his findings with that of other dealers to come up with a more general view. This group effort is Sporting Index's response to counter individual preferences which makes it far less likely that a dealer will overestimate winning distances, especially on the National Hunt race.
An interesting trait of this market is that taking the contrarian view can pay nicely since punters typically over-react on the spreads. For instance, taking the distances market, should it starts raining lightly the compilers will adjust the distances spread up to allow, should the weather turn nasty, for the possibility that the winning margins may end up extended further. If the course becomes softer for instance, the margins will normally push the spread distances up in the expectation that most punters will try monetising with a buy.
Obviously, this means that they will have to keep a watchful eye on the weather and the new spread as well as where the spread action is going in case they need to revise the lines down again. This is where most spread betters are caught out since the real total of the winning distances mostly fails to equal the spread where it was pushed out to.
One might think that this would mean some good profits for a punter prepared to sell at this new spread but the number of sellers will always be lower compared to the buyer irrespective of the market. This is because of the punters' natural tendency against shorting.
Which comes with a hidden message for punters: if circumstances change and the spread on winning distances shoots up, don't be shy of selling; sure there won't be many others like you but you will be improving your chances of making money simply by taking the contrarian view.
A final note about playing distances is about the final totals. Dealers will want the final total figure to be inside their spread so for instance if they have quoted , they will hope that the make-up will be 7. Races which have close finishes generally favour dealers the most so will commonly hear they shouting 'Not too far!
As for the match-bets market, spread compilers are trying to filter out two horses which they think have a good change of finishing close to each other; with usually the smaller the distance, the greater SportingIndex's profit margins. Dealers are usually wary of racing horses that have visors, sporting blinkers or tongue straps for the first time as the animal might react negatively to the extra gear and make a poor race finishing well away from their matched-up counterpart.
Not only that but SportingIndex software is designed in such a way as to follow and flag spread traders who are on a persistent winning streak or are simply well-known in the industry as canny forecasters. This is the reason that spread bets are at time referred to manual authorisation from a dealer before acceptance or rejection. In fact, when it comes to skilled punters, dealers will in some cases even allow themselves to be directed on a spread if a 'hot punter' puts in some large action on a particular bet.
Most punters already browse through the Racing Post to evaluate the market leaders' chances and check out Betfair to see where the action is going. They also respond to any tweaks the dealers might do to their odds once the action starts hotting up yet they still end up losing. This is because most punters are not sufficiently disciplined to compile the odds in the same way dealers do; for instance it take a dealer about 2 hrs just to work out a favourites index.
What all this means in practice is that to improve one's chances of beating Sporting Index, traders need to specialise in one or two markets and use the same disciplined approach to establish their own prices. Which means you have to work out your own spread using roughly the same techniques that dealers do, and if it's higher or lower, betting accordingly.
A: The spread betting bookmakers make money from the gap in the spread, example 54 - 58 which represents a 'margin of error'. Should the outcome fall between this spread, then the bookie stands to win. In general, the smaller the margin, the better it is for the punter since the result is then more likely to fall either side of the spread. A: I think the short answer is probably 'no'!
I'm sure that the spread-betting and general bookmaker firms may well have their own estimates and calculations on what each team will score in the upcoming matches, but this will not be published publicly anywhere. As you have noticed, they wait until the toss has been made before putting in their opening quote on total runs. Issues like the state of the pitch, the weather, and the make-up of the team will all have a factor in helping to formulate this quote as well as a bit of guess work from the 'cricket experts' at each firm.
A: This was responded by an experienced trader -: With regard to arbitrage betting, there's nothing "wrong" as such, but from the bookies perspective it disturbs the standard risk-risk balance of the "game". Such players add nothing to the system, they are takers, pure and simple, extracting money from the spread betting pool with little or no risk.
Not illegal, but if you were the head of a spread firm, would you want an arbitrageur on your books If you want to play the arbitrage game then take your business to Betfair. On the exchanges you're robbing Peter to pay Paul and taking your arbitrage percentage of the trade, no loss to Betfair, and Peter is even unlikely to know what's going on. On the spreads you may be robbing Sporting Index to pay IG Index, as soon as they latch on to what you're about, you're likely to be considered not worth keeping on as a client.
Can you blame 'em? One bookie dealer commented 'Bookmaking is the art of making a book, not as some people believe simply laying a bet. Thus like all firms we have risk guidelines and will when necessary limit clients or change prices as we see fit. Sports betting is a leisure service, a battle of minds between market maker and punter but a handful of clients will only play our markets when there is an arbitrage opportunity with another firm, this is not good business and these clients will be restricted in the size of bets they are able to have.
A: Tagging this on here as it relates to palpable errors -: This morning looked at Sporting index Their quotes for SP markets were Warwick Lingfield Kelso Tucked away was an aggregate quote of This meant you could buy aggregate for and sell the individual markets for in total. Ok so I put my bets on the individuals, no problem, then came the buy on aggregate. A nice message came up saying you bet has been "referred to a trader".
After about 30 seconds a message came back saying my bet had been accepted. It was at that stage I got a bit of cold feet about this. What if they voided the aggregate buy as a palpable error? I rang them up. Your the first to spot it. Want do you want to do? The aggregate price is a palpable error and we won't settle at that price". I had the feeling that I was getting nowhere fast. A: I don't think they hedge at all.
Of course they can move the spread to balance the positions to a greater degree with sports betting than financial betting. But inherently there does seem to a higher degree of risk exposure in sports betting for the spread betting company Also, on a single bet there is more risk and occasionally they do get it wrong - like the number of bowling wides bowled with a white cricket ball in the last world cup. However, over the long run, they set the spread in such a way that they will consistently win more than they lose - just like straight forward bookmaking where they set the odds so that statistically they will win more than they lose.
That's why gambling is a mugs game - you will occasionally win big and it feels great but you will also consistently lose more than you win with very few exceptions! I wouldn't bother. One thing you could do is express the total profit from winning bets as a percentage of the total loss from losing bets. It's a simple statistic that gives some idea of the profitability or otherwise, and has the advantage that it makes sense for either spread betting or fixed odds betting.
A: In actual fact sports results are not as unpredictable as one might first think. Taking the United Kingdom Premiership as an example, over the passage of the season, you will typically find that the number of goals scored is about two or 2. Whether we're going to see more volatility over the next couple of years, who knows really? A: The few people that can do this profitably in the long run work very hard all week. They analyze every aspect of the game including conditions, players, stats, and many other things.
You have to figure out if the favored team will win by more than the number indicated by the point spread. Or if the underdog team can either win or lose by a number less than what the point-spread says. This is a bet with two possible outcomes. It amounts to a heads-or-tails proposition. Obviously, the job of the football bettor is to gain an edge and be able to sense a weak point spread and eventually win more bets than he loses.
And sometimes, there are opportunities for the bettor to pounce on a flawed point-spread. The bookie puts up a point-spread not so much as an authoritative analysis of the game. The point-spreads will often times be eerily accurate, but the primary motive for posting a point-spread is usually to get equal betting action on both sides of the bet. The bookie wants roughly the same amount of money on both sides of the bet, guaranteeing him a profit.
They are not so much concerned in the actual outcome of a game. In a lot of ways, it is tied to public opinion. This means there will be some point-spreads that are faulty, thus giving you some good wagering opportunities. With point-spreads, favorites are always represented by a minus-sign, with underdogs designated by a plus-sign.
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You lose the money that you placed on that bet. In these cases, there may not even be a point spread available for the game and you can only bet on the moneyline. This is a very common occurrence in sports betting and sportsbooks have the full right to shift the spread or odds for any given match prior to its start.
Many factors can influence a change of the spread such as injuries, the number of bets coming in for either team or the weather, to name a few. Depending on the timing of placing the bet, the bettor can also have an advantage or a disadvantage depending on which way the spread has shifted. If bettors had wagered on Dallas on Monday, that means they would be at a disadvantage compared to bettors who waited until Thursday because the Thursday bettors now only need Dallas to win by four points instead of five.
But it can also go the other way:. Yes, in fact, sportsbooks also release spreads for different points in the match like after the first quarter or first half, which is called live betting or in-game betting. As you can see, Dallas is a 2. Look for key numbers such as five and seven because they tend to represent two- and three-possession games.
In both cases, the spread is almost always If New York pulls off an outright upset, then that is also a winning wager. Need more winning picks? The handicapping, sports odds information contained on this website is for entertainment purposes only. Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country. Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited.
The site is not associated with nor is it endorsed by any professional or collegiate league, association or team. OddsShark does not target an audience under the age of Please visit gambleaware. Google Tag Manager. But what if the basement-dweller team was spotted 24 points? That's the concept behind the point spread. When two teams meet on the football field or a basketball court, one team is typically better than the other.
If all bettors had to do was to pick the winning team, everybody would simply wager on the best team and collect their money. Gambling institutions, sportsbooks, and bookies would soon go broke. Few people doubted that Carolina was the better of the two teams, so the majority of bettors would have taken the Panthers if they had only been required to pick the winning team.
So the sportsbooks and bookies created a point spread to make both teams equally attractive in the eyes of bettors. Carolina was installed as a 6-point favorite, which is commonly written as Carolina If you bet the favorite, the Panthers would have to win by 7 points or more for you to win your wager. And remember, the Panthers are favored by 6 points, so we have to subtract 6 points from their final score for betting purposes. If Carolina were to win , Panthers' bettors would win their wager.
If the Panthers were to win , Carolina bettors would lose because they did not win by more than those 6 points. If you bet the underdog, you'd win your bet if the Broncos won the game outright or if they lost by 5 points or less. Because the Broncos are the underdogs, we would add 6 points to their final score for betting purposes. If the Panthers were to win the game by exactly 6 points, , it would be a tie and all wagers would be refunded to bettors. You'll also usually be given the option to wager on the game with the money line in football and basketball.